Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 94006.128327 99109.129777 104206.921904 109678.173186 115380.475678 121144.863313 127408.897938
2025-06-08 84893.480829 92661.643872 100636.048408 109423.401525 118823.993027 128568.296180 139421.535403
2025-06-15 79674.096577 89370.416732 99538.308843 110973.694262 123453.834370 136638.292995 151597.147105
2025-06-22 75242.509423 86365.813225 98240.491520 111824.223315 126895.370170 143066.537776 161691.664831
2025-06-29 71156.140537 83359.543336 96594.458059 111961.177872 129256.706307 148065.472282 170009.403485
2025-07-06 67622.980290 80701.688922 95089.697333 112020.044786 131320.812006 152561.751256 177626.547206
2025-07-13 65672.595228 79677.734449 95281.223275 113859.635790 135278.242640 159096.150255 187480.563422
2025-07-20 63800.193466 78609.723441 95305.347811 115402.750514 138813.744564 165096.850859 196702.986483
2025-07-27 61753.366698 77218.493392 94850.500828 116296.397408 141523.580772 170100.781336 204756.995849
2025-08-03 59435.583772 75394.006727 93788.028876 116385.849319 143218.791133 173876.785851 211356.718461
2025-08-10 57475.973229 73907.716169 93043.918325 116776.334722 145205.797382 177949.225674 218279.544047
2025-08-17 55520.716989 72343.674808 92132.433020 116898.366128 146817.864250 181542.584547 224619.724122
2025-08-24 54255.775424 71598.255476 92194.401277 118195.247975 149859.882357 186877.479070 233109.199248
2025-08-31 52261.261773 69880.681924 91014.219446 117933.049410 150987.110851 189916.842590 238871.691610
2025-09-07 51351.304781 69479.367165 91416.578538 119582.398897 154421.603173 195723.870846 247977.540791
2025-09-14 50139.538867 68647.398874 91243.619636 120486.546788 156921.711795 200397.327382 255730.099048
2025-09-21 48639.147748 67393.337601 90495.579986 120632.157999 158454.339248 203877.854202 262033.865290
2025-09-28 47184.097635 66148.151302 89713.959779 120694.724596 159851.726493 207174.015181 268109.475027
2025-10-05 46669.655361 66103.692995 90439.095269 122649.028597 163610.308938 213383.031679 277792.673690
2025-10-12 46046.323234 65889.888515 90927.083777 124288.090961 166970.191831 219111.337365 286914.433146
2025-10-19 45155.806850 65290.948619 90892.467270 125237.189690 169446.791787 223745.059710 294698.850472
2025-10-26 43943.921067 64225.298391 90218.458618 125332.187716 170815.268182 226985.454696 300751.817093
2025-11-02 42920.872305 63383.149300 89809.272970 125746.873788 172576.152312 230712.514300 307423.359422